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Asia Weekly: It’s All About China and the USDCNY

Posted In AUD, AUDUSD, CNY, JPY, Minor Pairs, Trading Tweets, USDJPY - By Richard Lee On Friday, October 14th, 2011 With 0 Comments

Next week starts off with a bang, as major economic news out of China is scheduled for Monday night.  Although there are several other key regional reports, Beijing’s surveys over the health of its economy and consumer retail sector will be the talk of the town.

With plenty of global investors fretting over a hard landing in one of the world’s fastest growing economies, it’s no wonder why the Chinese gross domestic product report will be a highly anticipated release.  Last month, China’s economy witnessed a 9.5% pace of growth.  This was coupled with high inflation of almost 6.2%, catching the attention of policymakers and government officials.  Now, it seems that restrictive monetary policy – recently implemented through higher reserve requirements and loan restrictions – may be working their way through the country.

In the third quarter, expansion is anticipated to have slowed, advancing at a slightly less than exemplary pace of 9.3%.  Although this is still far better than most industrialized economies, the fact that the pace of expansion may decline for the third straight month could be a signal that the global contraction has made its way to China.  This isn’t going to be good for economies like New Zealand and Australia and their currencies.  Both have relied on China’s demand for raw materials and goods.

Retail sales in China are also expected to show softness – remaining at a stable but weak figure for the month of September.  Following August’s rise of 17%, Septembers consumer retail sales are expected to show a slightly better 17.1% increase.  Watch for these figures to be coupled with relatively stable industrial production – which is expected to climb by 13.3% in the month.

Outside of China, currency traders will be looking ahead to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes.  Although the outcome has already been decided, all eyes will be focused on the way that policymakers came to the ultimate decision.  Should there be any mention of a notable rate reduction by Governor Glenn Stevens, it would not be good for the Australian dollar’s short term prospects.

And, let’s not forget about Japan.

Although there isn’t a whole lot in the way of Japanese data, the market will be focused on upcoming plans that are set to be released by government officials next week addressing the issue of a strong yen.  With intervention likely out of the mix, government officials are speculated to make a push to acquire multinational companies as well as foreign resources in order to balance the USDJPY exchange rate – with some expecting the plan to force a 80-81 exchange rate in the short term.


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