As traders prepare for the long weekend ahead there’s just the matter of the Non-Farm Payroll to contend with. Of course this will either solidify the current sentiment that perhaps QE3 is not needed or at least of very low heat on the backburner. A good jobs number (the consensus is 74k) will go a long way in convincing the market that the recovery is going forward, albeit maybe slowly. Forecasts for the NFP have been on the slide and tomorrow expectation at 74k is coming in lower than the 89k that was beat in August with 117k.

The AUD/JPY is in an interesting position to see follow-through higher as the pair climbs higher intraday setting up a strong buying level at 82.00 which also has 200 period SMA support on the 240-minute chart. The 200 period SMA on the weekly chart is actually acting as resistance and price are trading right at this longer-term psychological level as the daily time frame shows transition. With the weekly and daily time frames both in a neutral market sentiment, look for the current strength in the aussie to continue against the yen, especially with the yen’s strength (for now) stifled by the BOJ.

Despite the sell-off in the Dow and the strength above 74.00 in the U. S. Dollar Index, the Australian Dollar has been holding its own thanks to a resilient crude oil market and commodities strength in general – which is not the typical reaction to a strong greenback and weak equities.

If traders won’t buy the yen if the number is weak (the daily USD/JPY continues to have considerable support between 76.30 and 76.00) look for the franc to continue to press higher and the USD/CHF to continue to move back within its range. If the 0.7890 level is broken, look for another test of the 0.7800 level.